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On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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Posted by bi11me 5b (My Page) on Tue, Jan 31, 12 at 14:20
| There have been a lot of posts recently, here and in other forums, about seed starting, anticipating an early spring because of the relatively warm conditions many of us have enjoyed so far this winter. As with financial investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but the "Last Frost Date" that most gardeners base their planning on is relatively stable as a long-term trend, and current weather conditions have NOTHING to do with when that will occur - for most of us, still a few months away. Believing that our balmy January portends a steamy March is, as any weatherman will tell you, delusional. Granted, seeds are relatively cheap, and except for us market gardeners starting a crop is a small investment of time. If you lose a few seeds it's no big deal, and there is plenty of time to start afresh, and if one gambles on the weather, there is always the possibility of things turning in your favor, but prudence would argue that your winter gardening hours might best be rewarded by attention to careful planning, establishing a good succession and rotation system, researching unfamiliar varieties, and planning on how to invest all that money you're saving on heating costs.
The Farmers Almanac, on it's Frost Date web page, has this to say about th matter -
"The dates listed above are normal averages for a light freeze/frost. The possibility of a frost occurring after the spring dates and before the fall dates is 50 percent. Frost/freeze temperatures are categorized by their effect on plants:
Light freeze: 29 degrees F to 32 degrees F �" tender plants killed, with little destructive effect on other vegetation.
Moderate freeze: 25 degrees F to 28 degrees F �" widely destructive effect on most vegetation, with heavy damage to fruit blossoms and tender and semi-hardy plants.
Severe freeze: 24 degrees F and colder �" damage to most plants."
In my commercial operation, 50% is not odds I'm willing to gamble on. There are, obviously, lots of ways to fudge that; season-extending practices, moving plants in and out based on daily conditions, and the like, but there is NO justification for the belief that the weather today is an indicator of a longer growing season. And yes, I do believe that global warming is the result of human influence, but that too is likely to be an incremental, though no less urgent, process, and unlikely to be responsible for this months' unseasonably tolerable temperatures.
"The sun was warm but the wind was chill.
You know how it is with an April day
When the sun is out and the wind is still,
You’re one month on in the middle of May.
But if you so much as dare to speak,
A cloud comes over the sunlit arch,
A wind comes off a frozen peak,
And you’re two months back in the middle of March."
From a poem by Robert Frost, "Two Tramps in Mud Time" 1934 |
Follow-Up Postings:
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| I agree that it could change soon and be colder in the eastern part of the country. Some times February is the coldest month. I suspect that the jet stream is holding back the polar winds. When it is warmer than normal in one area, it is probable that it is colder somewhere else....like Alaska. |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| Agreed, the first and last frost dates are set for a reason. However, an "early spring" can be a reality, so the concept is not a fallacy. |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| The retail outlets just love it when customers get a case of spring fever! You'll find your favorite bedding plants and veggies lined up expectantly weeks and weeks before you should even think about putting them out. At the first hint of an 'early spring' the shelves are bare! But they know that the same customers will have to come back and buy their plants all over again once they've ripped the frozen ones out, lol. |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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bi11me, that's spot on.
pnbrown... fallacy is an argument/statement based on an invalid inference, and that's the point the OP was making...we shouldn;t be connecting warm temps now with an earlier last frost date this year, there's no correlation there. I realize I'm fortunate to have an 'early' spring every year here in SC |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| All points very well taken. |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| we shouldn;t be connecting warm temps now with an earlier last frost date this year, there's no correlation there. Amen to that!!! Dave |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| i disagree to some degree. my soil which is usually frozen or complete slop this time of year is warm enough and dry enough to till. i'm planting snow peas and radishes tomorrow. if they fail i'm out the couple hours it takes me to do it and the cost of the seed... if they don't fail i have an exponential gain by having product for sale that much earlier in the season. (i sell to restaurants and at market) am i going to move my planting of cold-sensitive summer vegetables into march? negative... but i'm going to get a bit of stuff in the ground now that can take a bit of cold in hopes we don't get any REAL ground freezing cold. it is gambling with the weather for certain but the potential odds i'm getting on the payout make it worth the bet imo. it's part of the nature of farming. no 2 years are going to be the same and you have to take advantage of things when they potentially go in your favor. |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| We're not in disagreement. My initial point is in regard to the validity of the last frost date in relation to current conditions. You're clearly in a warmer zone than I am, but I too am in the beginning stages of planting. The difference is that the crops that I'm starting now are destined for ground that is protected from the vagaries of the weather (to the extent that it can be) with the intention of claiming that same marketing advantage. It's arguably one of the few ways to actually see a reasonable return on radishes. But there are several posts on this scattered across this website by people who believe that our clement temps this month can be interpreted as a green light for the growing season to begin. This disregards history, science, and math, and for an inexperienced grower is a recipe for disappointment, at best. For commercial growers, and particularly those whose penchant for risk is mediated by the possibility of a higher reward, it's a gamble that could pay off. |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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- Posted by glib 5.5 (My Page) on
Tue, Jan 31, 12 at 19:09
| Suddenly I have friends of all stripes calling for seed starting advice. I had to laugh today when I went to visit one before work, and in the last two days he has built a BIG seed starting facility (25 trays). Not enough lighting, but otherwise it was impressive. But this is a guy who had abandoned his garden in the last two years. No telling what a little sunny weather does to people. I am guilty myself, for I am ordering my new orchard this week. |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| Love the Robert Frost poem. Thanks for that. Dick Raymond (my favorite garden guy from the 70's) said an old timer once told him, "Dick, if you're not losing some of your early crops and some of your late crops to frost, you're not planting early enough or late enough." (something like that.) I confess, I planted lettuce seeds outside under cover last week. Probably won't succeed, but it was just something I had to do. |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| Are there any variety of humans more optimistic than gardeners? Fishermen, perhaps, and a few religious sects maybe. "Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly." "There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why... I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?" Robert Kennedy, both |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| Lol, very timely, as the temperatures are so lovely outside right now! I have the itch, but I do know better. Anyways, it just gets me in the mood to actually plan the garden this year and really plan it out more thoroughly. However, should this balminess continue, I'm not beneath the idea of scratching a few pea and spinach seeds into the garden early and see how they do. |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| I started getting spring fever in DECEMBER. So I consoled myself by ordering more seeds. |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring',.. Punxsutawney Phil agrees with you :~). Our resident expert in GA, General Beauregard Lee, as he usually does, has predicted an "early spring". He get's it wrong more often than right. But who can blame him for being optimistic on a February day with clear blue skies and 67 degrees. |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| The wooly bears always seem to be right about the winter here. They say lots more mild weather, then a short blast of cold and snow at the end. (they also said cold and snow at the beginning, which was right.) I wonder how they know? (For those new to wooly bear weather prediction: the black stripes are cold and snow, the orange stripes are the mild weather. This year they have a small black stripe on each end and a LONG orange section in the middle.) |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| My understanding for the wonderful months of Dec. - jan. is not the jet stream but the arctic oscillation. On the other side of the planet the oscillation is causing the opposite of our weather. Anyway, I just hope it doesn't stay so warm, long enough that the winter hardiness comes out of the apple, peach and pear buds and we get a sudden drop to 0 degrees or less. Bye bye buds! Will all this atypical string of warm days and nights continue, beats me but I sure wouldn't bet my money on it. I've been calling this "the winter of love" because I loved the weather over the last 2 months (except for the total lack of precipitation). |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| i've resisted the urge to plant but did start tilling my plots so they're ready for the peas in five weeks or so. i usually wintersow but have put it off because of the many unseasonably warm days. early sprouting could lead to severe disappointment if/when it gets cold as it most likely will. |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| This weather will forever spoil me. When a "real" winter hits, I don't know how I will be able to stand it without going crazy. I have shoveled snow for a grand total of approximately 10 minutes this year. Who could ask for anything more than that in Michigan? Yesterday, it was about 45, clear and sunny with just a light breeze. My Lenten Rose is blooming its little heart out. The bees were all out flying around, and I also saw several other insect species, some kind of gnat-like things and some flies. My Salix 'Rubykins' is opening its catkins. Reminds me of the lyrics from that novelty song back in the 80s or 90s - "How Bizarre, How Bizzare, How Bizzare" |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| Yes, someone forgot to educate my crocus on the fallacy of early spring. They have bloomed straight through for about a month and are done. But I refuse to listen to them, since a) they are Siberian, so what do they know about warmth? And b) though we are running out of days where it is likely, one good cold snap will put everything back on hold for weeks. Oh,and c) I'm still hoping for that cold snap to come and finish killing off my winter cover of oats or else I'm going to have to mow them. Come on, Artic Oscillation, just give me one good week and finish them off! |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| Yeah, my winter oats, guaranteed to winter kill, are still growing happily. And my neighbor had a single crocus in bloom yesterday--the earliest ever, (but my guess is that last night's 20 degrees did it in.) |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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- Posted by tomva 7-central virginia (My Page) on
Tue, Feb 7, 12 at 8:30
| I dont try to get a big jump on it.Last winter was great I got my toms and peppers in the ground here April 1st,a month early but It was really warm and I could see the month long forcast,no where near frost conditions,so I took a chance and it worked out.I dont go by farmer almanac(its always wrong)I go by the last frost date and the Natl weather center,which now is pretty accurate compared to back in the day when it was as accurate as the farmers almanac,In my opinion:o) |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| did the same here in VA BEACH last year. put corn and g beans out 2nd-3rd week of march last year. corn took forever to sprout. everything worked out though. yesterday i took some cuttings off a couple of petunias from last summer. theyre still doing well on the back porch. ate brocoli from the fall planting yesterday, and still have spinch growing. when it comes to planting, i listen to the oak tree in the neighbors yard. i figure hes been there a hundred years, he might know a thing or 2 about the weather. thus far its worked. definitely been a weird winter, and this was the first year i decided not to over seed the lawn, as the last 2 years it snowed. oh well. funny thing is i told the wife i was going to try and grow year round here this year, talk about tremendous success |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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I am a cockeyed optimist, but within reason. I am contenting myself with getting my beds really really ready. Going to till two more raised beds under this weekend. Must. Stop. Looking at seed Catalogs....
I gambled with my 'maters last year, but had little straw teepees standing by. I don't think it really mattered because they took forever to start growing.
I think this year, aside from cold crops, I will plant a little later. |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| As many have mentioned, the lack of cold and snow is a mixed blessing. Getting extended growth from cover crops that were intended to winter-kill is just more biomass, and it's REALLY unlikely you'll see much growth in spring. As for the Farmers' Almanac, i take the predictions with a grain of salt, but it's handy to have all of the information they consolidate all in one place, and they do keep up with changes of ones and historical precipitation and such - my original point being that history, like that found in old oak trees, is the best guide. There are plenty of innovations to hedge your bets concerning last frost date, too, if there is no snow on the ground. I know in Mass. the soil is in some places still soft enough that you could sink some pipes or rebar in the ground and build a low tunnel. Light levels are increasing, so in a week or so you could seed a bed of spinach or radishes or turnips to be eating in early May. You could also install some kind of soil warming mulch, and be ready to plant less hardy crops under a low tunnel much earlier, and not have them just sit there complaining about how cold their feet are. Make the most of the warmth, but don't count on it or take for granted that it's going to continue. |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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- Posted by jolj 7b/8a-S.C.USA (My Page) on
Tue, Feb 7, 12 at 21:47
| We didn't get a new frost date with the new zone? |
RE: On the Fallacy of 'Early Spring'
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| No, not necessarily. The new zone maps measure winter hardiness, they reflect a prediction of lowest likely temperatures in the time between First and Last Frost Dates. This has to do with survival of perennials more than viability or mortality of annuals. The new zone maps are guidelines for orchardists more than vegetable crop growers - with the exception of crops that overwinter - and in MOST cases the new zone maps reflect what most growers would prefer, which is slightly higher winter low temperatures, which can mean better survival rates for crops that till now have been borderline, like peaches in Maine or figs in Massachusetts. |
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