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Major freeze showing up on weather model

Posted by franktank232 z5 WI (My Page) on
Sat, Mar 24, 12 at 22:07

Note: This is over 10 days out. Until the ECMWF (European weather model) shows this, along with other models, don't take any of this too seriously. Just be aware its very possible.

We have had so much warm weather so early, that everything in my yard is near or has bloomed (about 5 weeks behind last year). Parts of N Michigan were near 90F just a few days ago. For the days I'm looking at (April 7th/8th)...the record lows here are in the low teens, so really this isn't even close to record breaking cold, but because of where we are at in flowering/fruit....

The GFS (American weather model) for the last 6 or so model runs has been showing what would be a very nasty freeze for most of us in the midwest/lakes and probably points east. Lets just say it has Milwaukee dropping to 21F (on April 8th) and my area dropping to 22F... Detroit shows 21F also..

Basically right now the GFS shows what would be a disaster for orchards. I doubt there would be any apples out of Minnesota, Wisconsin, most of Michigan...Peaches would be destroyed, cherries, etc...

I'll try to update daily with any major changes.

Here is Detroit...
LINK

Punch in your 4 digit airport code closest to you to find what your area shows (they start with K...KDTX/KLSE/etc).


Follow-Up Postings:

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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

I sure hope you are wrong! This would be my first year for fruit on a lot of my trees.
Maybe I need to keep everything in containers and move it indoors at the first hint of a freeze.
Dan


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Key number seems to be 28F. Above that and you should be OK (for the most part) and below that, expect damage...I would imagine below 25F and you lose close to 100%?

Not good is all I know. The models change, often times a lot...so i'm keeping my fingers crossed.

GFS runs 4x a day... The ECMWF only goes out until 240hrs...so until this thing gets in range of that model, I'll wait to forecast complete devastation.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

For me in NE Iowa your link shows 27F on 4/7/12, whereas www.weatherforyou.com shows us at 52F for low temp on 4/7/12.

Does anyone else think that 14-day forecasts are voodoo science?

'In 1998, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) analyzed how well forecasters predict weather. . . .

Long-term forecasts (Day 7 to 14) demonstrate little skill. John Q Public could do as well simply checking what the long-term average weather is for that date.' See link for additional details.

I have a hard time thinking we won't get frost, but given the seven day forecast, I am gaining measured optimism over the prospect that a hard freeze will be avoided.

Here is a link that might be useful: Weather Forecasts -- Accuracy


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

This has me concerned, JFK airport has a low of 28F for the 7th,8th and 9th. I am about 5 miles from JFK


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

My living requires happy customers who pay me to supply them with fruit from their orchards. The last time we had a terrible freeze was in late May about 10 years ago. No apples in the Hudson Valley at all and forget about most stone fruit that year.

I don't remember anyone seeing that one coming but expected calamities have mostly failed to materialize in subsequent seasons. I do have to question whether these forecasts beyond about a week have any validity at all- has anyone seen an analysis of this data?

Anytime you have an especially early spring I expect the odds of losing the crop is magnified- 2 years ago spring was almost this early and I suffered some significant damage on stone fruit in my own orchard and further up state many growers lost their apple crops. Most of my customers just below me escaped any damage at all. We were so close to escaping any damage at all as this was a late freeze and the last one and barely cold enough.

In the end, it's probably best to live in the moment and roll with whatever nature unleashes or provides. At least wait until a disaster comes before making yourself miserable, even though you still have food in the cupboard. This, at least, is what I tell myself as my stomach clenches in spite of my self lecture.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Below is a bud hardness temperature chart.
A little work and money and you might save your fruit.

Here in South GA we grow citrus but have to protect it in the winter.

First keep your orchard floor wet to soak up the heat from these warm days. That might get you one degree but that might be just what you need.

If you have outdoor Christmas lights then stringing them through your trees if you can. Vinyl paint drop cloths are strong and can be draped over trees. Got to my blog to see a cheap frame setup over a tree that is 10 feet tall and a bit wider than that. With lights and cover I held the inside temperature to 30 degrees on a 18 degree day.

http://georgiahomeorchard.blogspot.com/2012/02/citrus-freeze-protection.html

You got to figure wind in because you don't want to break a tree to save a crop this year.

Food for thought anyway

Here is a link that might be useful: Bud cold hardness


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

They're calling for a low of 16 on Tuesday night around here. We're not at pink bud yet but this would probably be nearly a total loss for my fruit. I pray that something changes in the meantime. My orchard's fairly young too and I was really hoping for my first pears, plums, sweet cherries and possiby a peach or three this year. Assuming we survive the cold, I should have many, many bushels of apples this year and many of my varieties of apples will also be producing for the first time this year.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Call me naive but I'm not too worried. I truly feel like Mother Nature wants to bust records this year. The latest forecast data from GFS 3/25/12 shows the coldest temperature in Milwaukee at 35 F and in Green Bay at 31 F over the next 2+ weeks, with the coldest temperatures tonight, so we'll very soon see if it is true. If my theory is correct, the low temps in the forecast will continue to rise as the model figures out the truth that winter truly is over. And the trees know it. Tens of thousands of years of evolution can only rarely be wrong. Call it global warming, call it La Nina, call it 2012/Armageddon -- whatever suits your fancy. Tonight's low will really be the last nail in the coffin from what I can tell. The only thing that could possibly still happen is like what's been suggested above -- a freak freeze in the middle of friggin May or June. But somehow I don't think so, with how mild the whole rest of the past year has been. I'm thinking it's got to be this La Nina thing.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Dmtaylor-

Like I stated...until the ECMWF starts showing complete wipe out of the MN/WI/MI apple crop, I'll hold off... Obviously the GFS sees cold air coming down, just how strong it will be is the question...

Even low 20Fs in early April are not that uncommon, so really this isn't anything out of the ordinary. Its just we are so far into this growing season...


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

It's not the cold that's abnormal, it's the too-early heat.

There's not really anything we can do about it. Even knowing that I likely won't get a crop, I'm doing everything as if I could assume I will.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

In Texas we go through this every year. At first you hope it will stay cold. Then when that obviously won't work anymore you hope it will stay warm. Forty years experience tells me that you guys are likely facing a freeze. Shoot we probably still have one coming here and I already have watermelon up. Cardboard protects small melons. Trees are much harder. This is the major reason why I have a greenhouse.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Frank, this forecast looks like its almost just generating random numbers. Check it now, DTX is above 30F except for next Tues now, and there is no big low at all on April 8th.

Scott


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

  • Posted by myk1 5 IL (My Page) on
    Sun, Mar 25, 12 at 11:29

The coldest it shows for me is Monday at 34�. Monday is a reasonable time to predict the weather, although the Weather Channel is showing 47� as Monday's low.

Looking at the averages and records for next month and considering that this is tending towards the record highs I'm probably pretty safe. I should be past petal fall before we get out of the extended forecast so should have to have more than a simple frost to do some damage.

Of course there's more than a month left to get beyond the extreme frost date and I'm always the pessimist. I've been expecting a late April snow this whole spring.
I'm more worried about it being a long hot summer with no breaks or rain like last year.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

DMTaylor, I think you may be overly optimistic (not the common trait of a gardener). There is a balance going on in terms of trees benefiting from maximizing the potential length of the season- a tree that grows slower may be overtaken by a tree that puts it's seeds at risk for a season in order to control more sun by growing higher and wider. The tree that controls the sky is the one likely to succeed over the long haul. They extend their dormancy at risk of their dominance in their natural forest setting. This is probably why, in most fruit trees, flowers and the leaves supporting them develop first- they are more expendable. Still the sooner they develop the sooner the vegetative leaves follow.

If a tree loses its vegetative leaves it is much more serious and often lethal. I've never seen most types of fruit trees send out vegetative leaves and then lose them but flower and spur-leaf freeze-outs are common. Unfortunately it may becoming much more common in northern areas.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Some of us in northern areas are pushing the envelope, and we have to realize this comes with risks. I was at a meeting of the local fruit growers group and was surprised to realize how few of them were doing much besides apples and pears. I think I was almost the only one to show up with scion wood from Japanese plums.

So I don't get fruit from all these trees every year, but I wouldn't get any if I didn't give it a try.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

  • Posted by myk1 5 IL (My Page) on
    Sun, Mar 25, 12 at 18:32

I don't think 5 is being overly pushy for Japanese plums.
Now the people I know in MN from brewing forums with Japanese plums, they're pushing it.
But here in 5 I expect I'll get them more often than not without much input from me (although with plenty of worry because our weather people are good about giving forecasts based on wishful thinking until the 10:00 forecast where they come out and say it's going to freeze to late to do anything about it).


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

They're more reliable than the cots. I've not tried pluots, but Spring Satin flowers with the plums. I think maybe people got the idea it couldn't be done when the weather was colder here.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

I studied weather in college for a few semesters before taking up computer science.

It looks pretty zonal to me until early next week, April 2nd when a shot of "colder" air comes down from Alaska into California. Warm in the east again, possible severe weather in the plains mid week.

Dont freak out yet, these models are fluid and especially volatile without snow pack this time of year to keep the temps down. Sun angle is getting higher, so the ground will have more say in surface temperature than you'd think.

I am not a commercial grower, I am just planting these past two years in my yard. I have expectations of fruit, but im hoping this works out for you guys who are growing.

Here is a link that might be useful: GFSx - US - 500mb Hght/SLP - Loop


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

harvestman:
Albany area Monday night: Clear with gusty winds. Hard freeze expected. Low 21F. Winds NNW at 20 to 30 mph.

Sorry to see this, I hope most of your trees havent broken bud. My Jonamac up here is still in silver tip... barely.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

My J. plums are pretty much at full bloom, peach flower buds are at various states from pink to wide open. Redhaven and Madison have plenty of unopened flowers.

Forecasts vary but it's bound to get at least as cold as 24 tonight (actually tomorrow am) with a hard frost predicted all the way down to NYC.

I may attempt to protect some of my J. plums with plastic sheeting but I'm not sure what I will do beyond this. A freeze like this hasn't happened for years as J. plums have been consistent for about a decade around here but in the past freeze off was not exactly rare. I guess I was getting spoiled.

It concerns me that the weather seems to be getting increasingly erratic and I hope we aren't seeing just the beginnings of what's to come in the next couple of decades. At some point erratic weather can drastically affect our overall ability to produce food. In the end the stability of civilization is dependent on food production, of course.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Only my peaches and nectarines are getting to 'popcorn' stage. All of the other trees are still in tight bud. I will still cover the peaches and nectarines this afternoon. I agree with Harvestman, about the erratic weather. I hope this is a fluke and not a sign of the future. I'm sure this has happened before.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

6z GFS is a lot warmer in the extended. Stills hows some chilly 850mb temps, but would only be 30Fs here... Still something to watch, but hopefully this is a trend. I really don't want to deal with a hard freeze and all the blankets, sheets,etc I'd have to pull out to try to protect my trees.

I will say that the extended does look more "normal" then it has been, no more record warmth, although the GFS continues to show a quick run up in temps before we fall off...so maybe another 80F reading before the cold arrives.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

In terms of history, the planet has had its ups and downs with temperature. This isnt global warming, this is wacky weather this year due to a eastward shift in the La Nina effect. La Nina and El Nino are relatively new to researchers, the pattern was picked up not too long ago, but has been going on for a very long time. There are a lot of NATURAL variables that go into the climatology cycle, like volcanic activity, solar cycle, natural CO2 emmissions, even dust!

Here is a link that might be useful: 2500BC to 2040AD Climate Graph.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

  • Posted by glib 5.5 (My Page) on
    Mon, Mar 26, 12 at 10:47

For what is worth, ice cores of age similar to the last major climate transitions show local rapid (rapid=year to year or decade to decade) weather oscillations before the onset of the new equilibrium. This is consistent with what we see here or in other parts of the temperate world. soon we will not worry about the peaches anymore but we will worry about bigger things.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

I love Randy's set up. I am going to do just that, and place a Sterno in each tent. We have a case of them left from last party, they are great for reheating food. Hope it works!


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

I am in Chicago. The low today is 36 but it will be below 32 in couple of days. I have a peach tree just flowered and petals fell. I will try to cover it up somehow to create a mico enviroment to protect it. My pear tree is in full bloom, depends on how long the freezing temp. is. It might survive and fruiting.
It is crazy. Last year , my daffodils did not bloom till Mother's day. This year, they are already done blooming.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

  • Posted by myk1 5 IL (My Page) on
    Mon, Mar 26, 12 at 15:47

I don't think I'd call it increasingly erratic. It has always seemed erratic.
Although it was in z6PA I recall a few birthdays that were very warm. Here we've had a few early springs. Warm spells in Feb/Mar that have me hoping the trees don't bloom aren't at all rare.
If we actually back off the heat for the rest of March and April without getting into freezing, to have an actual spring here will be rare but welcomed.

Since nobody responded to my water mist question on whether they've tried it, water is above 32. Running water on the trees keeps them above 32. If it's cold enough for them to freeze the ice insulates them to keep them at 32.
A friend unintentionally test this when he fell in a creek at about 10. Granted he has a body producing heat but his ice covered windbreaker kept him pretty warm the rest of the day.

This would be a lot easier to set up than tents and covers.

I haven't ever done it in the spring for flowers but I've done it in the fall to get a coating of ice to protect the garden plants.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Earlier when I posted, 4/7/12 was to be 52F here, and now 47F. Lowest in our 2-week forecast now is 30F on 4/4/2012. It is looking good for us in upper Midwest, so far. But my peach trees are fully blooming at least 5 weeks early.

I love peaches.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

myk1,

Overhead irrigation is commonly used to reduce/eliminate the effects of spring freeze/frost damage.

But the ice does not insulate, or at least not in any substantial fashion. The water gives up a certain amount of heat as it cools from say 45 down to 32. But as it freezes a substantial amount of heat (energy) is released as liquid water phase changes to solid ice. After that it is just a bit of additional thermal mass.

You must keep applying more water which in turn freezes and releases a bit more heat.this continues until temps rise.

The ice build up that results can be a problem with breakage if the freeze event is especially cold or long.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

"Since nobody responded to my water mist question on whether they've tried it, water is above 32. Running water on the trees keeps them above 32. If it's cold enough for them to freeze the ice insulates them to keep them at 32.
A friend unintentionally test this when he fell in a creek at about 10. Granted he has a body producing heat but his ice covered windbreaker kept him pretty warm the rest of the day."

That is not correct but is a common misconception. Ice will protect the fruit or buds but ONLY if liquid water is continually applied to the ice AND it is calm. If you apply water to coat the fruit or buds in ice then stop the water it offers no protection at all. Try it for yourself.....place a thermometer completely submerged in a glass of water and stick it in your freezer, let it freeze solid and read the temp.

I am by far no expert but as I understand it it works like this..water coming from the irrigation system coats the buds and as long as you keep supplying water the ice constantly is being melted and reformed. Not talking about all the ice but a microscopic layer is constantly refreshed and as matter changes from one state (liquid) to another state (solid) and back to liquid energy is released in the form of heat and that creates a warmer bubble around the bud. Stop the flow of liquid water though or don't supply enough water and you lose your protection.

Water applied during wind will cause supercooling causing more damage than if no water was supplied at all.

Far as your friend...we produce our own heat and the ice would make his jacket windproof so I could see that happening. Sadly our plants don't make their own heat.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

I've been determinedly ignoring the longrange forecast of just-below-freezing for early next week. Payoff comes - it's been revised upward to 39.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

The GFS still wants to bring a killing freeze to the whole area, but not until the end of the model run (april 13th)...This is way too far out to worry about.

Next week looks chilly, but nothing that should be a problem...maybe some areas of Michigan may see frost/freeze.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

  • Posted by myk1 5 IL (My Page) on
    Wed, Mar 28, 12 at 12:18

I have tried it myself but for fall freezes. There I have stopped the water flow and gone with an ice coating as at that time the fruit has some thermal mass, we're talking a lot of cold to freeze an apple and a windbreaker can be all they need.

I did not say you should stop the water. Wind or not if you have running water on the trees it's going to stay around 32. If it's able to drop low enough to do harm with running water your tree was a goner any which way you slice it short of a tent AND a heat source.
High winds have a way of ruining a lot of plans. They blow the mist away from the trees, lift corners of tents, etc.

I used to fight mother nature all the time. I found hoop houses (with the ground mass somewhat warmed from the tent) with no heat was good to about 27 with tomatoes. They were worthless if the wind lifted a corner or if the cold stuck around with no sun to warm inside the tent during the day.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

"Wind or not if you have running water on the trees it's going to stay around 32"

No, that is not correct.

Water during a cold windy night will cause evaporative cooling and can cause the plants much more damage than if you had not turned the water on at all. Here is a link that explains what I am saying....it is a very complicated subject with many variables.

Here is a link that might be useful: Freeze protection.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

GFS shows what would probably be snow next week...


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

  • Posted by myk1 5 IL (My Page) on
    Wed, Mar 28, 12 at 19:07

It's not so complicated. Your water is coming out of the ground below the frost depth meaning your water is warmer than 32 (usually much warmer than 32).
It takes a lot of energy to change the temperature of water. Lose a degree to evaporation all you want but you have the tree being bathed in >32 to counteract that. It doesn't sound like the idea of evaporation is taking the "warmth" from the water into consideration or the fact that water in the process of freezing is 32 and it's not until it's frozen that it can drop lower. The plant is kept "warm" to >32. The ice coating is kept at 32 by the coating of water in the process of freezing.

Notice this from your link, "Overhead irrigation systems designed for freeze protection with diesel, rather than electric, pumps are the most widely used and practical method of reducing blueberry fruit losses to freezes in Florida"
Notice the pictures of blueberry plants encased in ice.
And notice the chart which takes wind into consideration to tell you how much water to spray.

Notice the chart where it says 27. That's the temperature I found that a hoop house with no heat craps out with tomatoes, especially with wind. A hoop house is going to be better than direct covering.

What I'm amazed your link doesn't mention is the wind blowing the mist away from the plants which leaves the trees exposed to the super cooling or evaporation. That has always been my problem when I've used water. 15mph is plenty of wind to blow the water off it's intended target.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

On weatherforyou.com our projected low temp now for next two weeks is 36F on 4/5/12. That's better than the 30F that had been our two week forecast low for 4/4/12 just yesterday's forecast. The forecast substantially improved in just 24 hours.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Just looking at models this morning...starting to think this whole major freeze thing may not play out. Everything seems to show a more mild look to it. Still a quick shot of cold moving in early next week that should spread through the lakes/NE... Could still be some frost/freeze for areas of Michigan and points east.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Its back...next week could be ugly... frost, freezes, snow...GFS and Euro both show ugly weather...


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Two week Low has been moved to April 13 at 33F. Reviewing my 1st post here, the two week low was projected at 27F on 4/7/2012, and that projection is raised to 36F.

I am starting to think that the two week forecast relies upon the Farmer's Almanac beyond the first week.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

GFS shows a game over... Time to dig out the blankets and frost cloth me thinks...the Euro will be out shortly...see if it concurs.

More or less the entire Great Lakes gets into the 20Fs ... as the cold air shifts east over Michigan...


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

  • Posted by glib 5.5 (My Page) on
    Tue, Apr 3, 12 at 15:35

I noticed that, too. This is going to be very bad for fruit growers around here.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Euro seems to be on board...

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Remember...still 7 days out...lots of model runs to come. Hopefully it can back off some on the extent of the cold.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

  • Posted by glib 5.5 (My Page) on
    Tue, Apr 3, 12 at 21:01

It has. Now it is showing 31 for Detroit as the minimum over the next week. These long range forecasts are too unnerving, I may delete that bookmark.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

UGLY UGLY UGLY UGLY UGLY... Will there be a fruit crop in Michigan this year? Looks bad over here on day 5/6...


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Yes... me worry!! All of a sudden, out of the blue, the weather folks in their infinite wisdom are predicting low temperatures of just 17 F tonight!! And just yesterday they were like, nah, it will be around 30 F.

Here is a link that might be useful: Freeze Watch for Manitowoc, WI


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model2

Actually here's where I got really scared:

Here is a link that might be useful: Hour by Hour Forecast for Two Rivers, WI


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Typical early spring battle of the air masses.


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Supposed to be 26 for me tonight, 23 tomorrow night. I have not seen my orchard in nearly a month so do not know what if anything is budding. I'll know this weekend. I am guessing Asian pears made it out. Buds were swelled several weeks ago when I saw them then we had the HOT weather..


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Accuweather is still saying low of 40 here, despite showing the banner with the official NWS Freeze Watch. I think they can't be believed, although I'd like to.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

  • Posted by glib 5.5 (My Page) on
    Thu, Apr 5, 12 at 12:15

We are talking about separate freezes here. Tonight (27 forecast here) is the small one. The big one will be April 12.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

The big dog is next week... Tonite is just a preview

NWS in Minneapolis:
"GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GEM HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND SUGGEST WE`LL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN
SINCE EARLY MARCH. HARD TO IMAGINE A SCENARIO WHERE WE DON`T GET
WIDESPREAD NEAR FREEZING OF SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS AT MOST
LOCATIONS SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
"


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

You may be right. Perhaps I should be more worried about April 10-ish. It turns out that the local weather forecast low for tonight has changed yet again from 17 F to 30 F. They seem to be saying that locally we are protected from extremes by Lake Michigan (I live one mile away from the big lake). Yay. I hope this comes in handy on April 10 as well.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Well...one more nite of safety, before the bottom falls out. NWS shows us dropping to 28F Tues morning, 29F Weds, 30F Thurs... Going to be very close. I'm only protecting a few trees, strawberries...

Models did a good job picking up on this from a long ways away.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

I'm surprised. Usually, these things change profoundly by the time the predicted date arrives. Here, the forecast has been steady at 32 for a week.

Just some frost so far this month, and some brown blossoms on a pear tree - the one in first bloom, of course, that I've been waiting on since 2006. Everything else looks like it might have made it. So far.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Tues Min temps...

Showing 27F here...

Mon nite/Tues will be an advective freeze...so hard to protect against that (it will be windy). Sheets will just probably fly away...

If I see a lot of damage, I'll just chop everything back and use it as an excuse to reshape some trees. I may even remove a few peach trees.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Frank - do you have a model for April 19?


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Yesterday morning my thermometer read just under 26. Peaches are at or slightly past full bloom. I still can't detect any browning in J. plum flowers- those that aren't past petal fall. Blossoms still look healthy and buzzing with various pollinators. There is some browning of spur leaves on pears and apples.

I really don't know what to make of this. Charts say that damage should be pretty much complete on my stone fruit but I don't really see it yet. I'm hopeful that the charts are not accurate because they don't take into account duration of lows.

The hard freezes we've had only linger at the lows for an hour. On the hardest one 2 weeks ago we bottomed somewhere around 23 and wide open J. plum blossoms were frozen solid but have looked fine since thawing.

All my fruit may come from the market this year and I've partially accepted that strong possibility but my eyes have not yet corroborated the verdict.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

It's good to have at least 2 thermometer out and take the everage, I know that most of them don't read correctly.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

It's too early to tell. Nothing in bloom here has been wiped out by any means. Sweet cherries are closest to being a loss, but frankly, I don't know why I bother since I lose them all to birds anyway. Some black centers to Asian pear, but its a minority of the blossoms.

Kiwi and possibly mulberries are a total loss for the year. With the kiwi, they're all toast, they were all popping with the warmth big time. Mulberries seem to be a tree by tree basis, some were far enough along to have all of the buds killed, others were barely coming out of dormancy and seem OK still. Time will tell.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

If you can wet down your orchard floor now to help hold heat for the cold weather. Water deep. Depending on how much sun you get before hand you might pick up a degree at your trees and maybe 2. Might be just enough.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

Dennis-

I agree with the sweet cherries. I have no idea why I have them in the ground. I have one nice tree in a container that has worked great, but that is because I can move it in and out of the rain if need be...and easily cover it with netting. I guess the same can be said for peaches, since one cold winter and its game over...

April 19th? Both the GFS and Euro have a pretty good cold shot moving through at that time. GFS shows high 20Fs here, but that is way out there to get specific... Still looks like a good cold shot around that time period.


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

  • Posted by olpea zone 6 KS (My Page) on
    Sun, Apr 8, 12 at 21:17

"I'm hopeful that the charts are not accurate because they don't take into account duration of lows."

Hman,

The old WSU standard temps (frequently reprinted in bud hardiness tables like the one below) were based on the lowest sustained temperature for 30 minutes in which there was no damage to fruit buds. I don't know how much time was used for the newer 90% and 10% damage tables.

Here is a link that might be useful: Fruit Bud Hardiness


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Correction

  • Posted by olpea zone 6 KS (My Page) on
    Mon, Apr 9, 12 at 11:29

I see I posted the wrong link. Below is the correct one.

Here is a link that might be useful: Fruit Bud Hardiness


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RE: Major freeze showing up on weather model

At least the freeze threat for 4/19 seems to have piffled.


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