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hoping the weather foks get it wrong

Posted by windfall_rob vt4 (My Page) on
Mon, May 13, 13 at 8:59

I know most of you are well past the spring bloom, but here in northern VT the last 2 weeks of incredible warm dry sunny weather in combination with the prior slow spring pushed everything at once....I mean everything...Blueberries, cherries,apples, pears and plums all in full bloom together.

Beautiful but strange.....and now this evening they are calling for 25 and tomorrrow for 26.....it could be pretty grim, hope they got it wrong

I made my peace with last years freeze out...figured it would give the trees a rest, but 2 years running will be hard to swallow.

just moaning a bit to a crowd who is more empathetic to my woes than the crew I work with.


Follow-Up Postings:

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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

It might be better to pray they got it right and it does not get any colder than that! I was in your situation a few weeks back only they were predicting 28 and we got 20! I've learned to subtract a number of degrees from the forecast lows when a major spring cold spell is predicted... Hope it's different for you


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

What part of Vermont are you in? I could give you an idea how bad it will or might not be...

That does suck and its the same situation here...everything flowering at the same time.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

32 here this morn. Record low. I saw frost when I got up.

Predictions for all of Michigan and most of WI were in the 20s for last nite.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

Last year I got down to 24 a couple of nights at similar timing- past petal fall for peaches and earliest apples. It did not wipe out my crop but seriously reduced it. Folks just a couple of degrees warmer, located a few miles from me were fine.

Here in the south Hudson Valley, NY, it is only predicted to get down to around freezing but I will be nervous.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

The NAM for tomorrow morning...


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

I had 27 degrees last night. Peaches and pears are in full bloom. Tart cherries are still in bloom but past prime.

apples are in tight cluster on most of my varieties. I hope
all will be ok. Hate to repeat the almost no crop I had last
year due to spring frosts.

The roofops were really white this morning with frost.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

Even here in the Piedmont of North Carolina the rooftops were white with frost this morning. I lost some tomatoes that I failed to cover, but others survived. The lowest I saw on the thermometer at my house was 35. It's supposed to be even colder tonight. In the last 9 years of paying attention to such things, this is only the second year I've seen a frost in May. (In 2009 we had frosts May 19 and 20.)

I'm surprised to hear about the warm sunny weather in Vermont the last two weeks. It's been over a month since we had warm, sunny weather long enough to be worth remembering.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

Strawberries seem OK, but some of my potato sprouts froze where they were poking out.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

Those predicted temps on the map don't look bad at all, except for a few spots in NY.

And there are so many factors that come into play that mid 20's is certainly not a guarantee of total loss.

Good luck to all of you...


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

Everything is also in full bloom or nearly so here in the Detroit area. Some apples are out, others close. Blueberries showing slight color, need a few warm days.

The unofficial low at the weather station closest to me was 32.2. The official low at the nearby airport was 31.

Things are largely unscathed. Magnolias ave some tip burn/brownout of petals, but I am grateful, it could have been far worse.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

I'm seeing a tiny amt of tip burn on some of my chip buds that just started to leaf out...shouldn't be any issues with anything else... I did cover the kiwis... and moved a lot of stuff into the garage. Official low at the airport was 35F, but i had frost on the roof, and ice in the bird bath..so i wouldn't doubt if i was colder.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

The numbers on Franks NAM map are in line with local NOAA, and that would be fine by me. Local forecasters are still calling for 25-28 as the overnight low...that could be a world of difference.
Everyone seems unsure of how still and clear it might be...here is hoping for some cloud cover.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

DON'T make the mistakes I made with my apricot trees. Run outside fast and cover your trees with tree tarps or hang Xmas lights especially the v9. By this way I saved the peach, the cherry, the nectarine and apple but I failed the apricot


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

42.8 in southeast Georgia this morning zone 8b just south of here is zone 9A all spring temp been dipping and diven I would guess same in your area. Today forecast high 80.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

25 at my house in central pa this morning at 3:30. Closest airport record was 30. Laid the hose out last night to get up and try to save a little. Hose was froze. Not looking good for fruit again this year.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

Frank, keep those fabulous maps coming. We eked by with a soaring 42 degrees last night. My husband was concerned I'd lose my cherry and plum blossoms that are left. I said not to worry. My apples are in full bloom, and enjoying this 'warmer' weather. Still very cold here for spring. Mrs. G


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

  • Posted by bart1 6/7 Northern VA (My Page) on
    Tue, May 14, 13 at 8:54

Is the cold bad for already formed fruits or just for the flowers?

In other words, if petal fall has come and gone are the trees/fruits safe from the cold? Also, what is the killer temperature for fruits?


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

Bart-

...i had apricot fruits last year get toasted from 26F...

Interesting case is Fargo, ND...just 3 days ago they were 24F and then yesterday the temp hit 93F... Massive amt of warm air moving into the midwest today.

Should be it for the cold folks... i think!


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

  • Posted by fruitnut z7b-8a,4500ft SW TX (My Page) on
    Tue, May 14, 13 at 10:20

Bart:

No the fruits aren't safe. Any stage after bloom is about the same, ie post bloom is all alike.

Here is a link that might be useful: illustrated spring frost thresholds


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

  • Posted by bart1 6/7 Northern VA (My Page) on
    Tue, May 14, 13 at 10:47

Thanks all!

Fruitnut - thank for the link to that chart. Very interesting. Do you know what "Old Temp" means? I understand "10% Kill" and "30% Kill", but not "old temp"


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

I know we hit a low of at least 30F last night, and couple of my thermometers read a little lower. I woke up at 5am and the ground was frosted. My covered blueberries and strawberries faired ok. I think one of my tomato plants and one of my potato plants took a hit though. Hopefully won't have to cover tonight.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

bart1,
If I'm reading it right,Old Temp is:"Old standard temperature is the lowest temperature that can be endured for 30 minutes without damage." Brady


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

  • Posted by fruitnut z7b-8a,4500ft SW TX (My Page) on
    Tue, May 14, 13 at 11:22

Bart, old temperature is what was used before they did detailed studies. So for folks taking frost prevention measures, those measures were started at the old temperature. But that resulted in excess cost because the old temp was too high. At least that's my understanding.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

Frost one night, two days later, highs in the 90s.

Poor plants don't know what to think!


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

Temp nearing 90F here....ugh... give me 70Fs... can't seem to find a happy medium.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

North of Omaha, NE

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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

  • Posted by fruitnut z7b-8a,4500ft SW TX (My Page) on
    Tue, May 14, 13 at 17:14

Those who've had constant cold all spring had better hope this weather pattern switches to constant heat. Because those of us who've alternated all spring have gotten crushed. The pattern hasn't changed down here. We're heading from 3 days cold back to hot again. Only difference is this cold spell was more clouds and not freezing. We already set our all time cold for May by 5F, 24 vs 29F. If that happens up north over the next month the result will be a lot like last year.


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RE: hoping the weather foks get it wrong

well my hopes were not in vain. We coasted by last night with 3-4 hrs at 30....no apparent damage and tonight they say it will be a bit over 32.
Hope this is the end of it


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