Cut a T in the bark and see if a flap easily lifts up or not. Bark slips in spring and later summer.

If the bark is not slipping you can always do chip buds instead of T buds. I almost always do chips for this reason. Sometimes I think I should switch to T when the season is good but old habits die hard -- chip budding is the first graft I learned.

Scott

If the bark isn't slipping a good watering will usually get it to do so within a week.