The long range forecast I watch isn't calling for cold in your area. It is calling for wet here, we can only hope!!

Here is a link that might be useful: climate prediction center-long range forecast

The white area on the NOAA map indicates 50/50 chance it will be above or below a normal/average range I don't know because it isn't defined, LOL. These vague monthly probabilities don't mean much to me because it was only a 3 day plunge that ruined my year.

Thanks Fruitnut! I've passed the site along. Mrs. G

I see that last year (2013-2014) they missed badly. Who can trust these maps?

I follow them regularly, and they're just about always wrong.

Haven't been wrong down here. Predicting warmer and drier than normal for yrs and that's what we've had. I'll see if they get this winter right, cool and wet. Wet for us would be one inch a month Nov thru March. That's a lot better than nothing.

Here in our part of Appalachia located in the Southwestern part of West Virgina..

I predict a long, cold and wet Winter. A lot of our native trees started changing color earlier than I have ever saw them. Most of the vegetable plants have died off which is something I have not saw happen before the first good frost. The only thing that seems to be growing is the grass.

Don't want to be gloom & doom though I agree with Hippy. The birds are bunching up, trees are prematurely dropping leaves so everything in nature is pointing to a cold, wet, long early winter for Kansas in my opinion. The vegetables are starting to come in misshapen and small with all the indications they are ripening in a hurry. Animals are trying to fatten up.

This track will decide on the rain, severe weather and even tornadoes so be ready for some of everything!
EL Nino's tell story in my weather watch the link below give what look for in your area.

Here is a link that might be useful: weather watch

MrsG47 hi

I have looked on internet U.S.A. long range weather forecast and i found some on internet which might be good to look at.

This link shows 2014-2015 winter forecast for U.S.A, it has temperature and prepication forecast:

http://www.weatheralertcentral.com/2014/08/05/winter-2014-2015-forecast-projections-released/

This video from 24.7.2014 shows winter 2014-2015 temperature, prepication, snowfall and overall forecast for U.S.A. That is outlook number 2. This is link to it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66YikiVy57w

This video is from same people but it is updated outlook 3 from 1.9.2014. It said in November 2014 they will release final outlook for winter 2014-2015. Looks like temperature forecast went little bit colder compared to previous forecast. This is the link :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDs3l_sYC2k

Hopefully those links give you some idea what kind of winter is coming in U.S.A 2014-2015.

Well here in central Alberta we've already seen snowflurries (on 2 days!) and had our killing frost, both about a month ahead of normal. And 200 miles south of me they had 8 inches of snow accumulate a few days ago. So after an unusually hot summer, it seems the colder weather is just itching to arrive. Time will tell if this foreshadows a nasty winter...

Thanks to all of you! It is odd here in RI, the leaves on many of our trees in Newport are already starting to turn red. The tomatoes are what there are of them are ripening all at once and very quickly. The temps at night have already been in the 50's and that was in August as well. I am surprised by the amount of leaves on the ground.

The sites you've all contributed are good. After visiting all of your recommended sites, it looks as if El Nino will be the predicting factor. Many of the sites will not give their prediction until November. Guess I'm a little early with my question. Thanks again! Mrs. G

MrsG47 hi

You said you are in Rhode Island, i don't know what is normal time there leaves to turn red and don't know what trees are you refering to, but i think some plants react to falling temperatures and some react to reduced daylength. I see here leaves on the end of August in usually i think. If plants react to daylength they may drop leaves even if temperatures were warm and no frost yet have been occured, that might explain why you are surprised to see leaves on the ground.

NOAA thinks the Polar Vortex breakdown won't happen 2 years in row and a mild El Nino will create a warmer winter for the Northeast.

I don't know about that. Where I'm at, the crazy oscillations seem to be in effect still. Last winter had temps way below seasonal norms. Spring was significantly above. Then summer was below. Now autumn is significantly above. Even if the oscillation starts to die out, I would expect this winter to be a little below seasonal norms at some point.

Here is a link that might be useful: NOAA winter 2015 outlook