Hi
It has been awhile when i last time updated solar cycle 24 situation, so let's look where we are now. As i said earlier solar cycle 24 began in december 2008. Solar cycle comes from sunspot, which is darker area in sun surface and are cooler than other areas in surface so they can be seen. Solar cycle last on average 11 years, that is on average 4 years rise to solar cycle minimum to maximum and 7 years decline from solar cycle maximum to minimum. We use SSN which is smoothed sunspot number to smooth daily sunspot number so we can get big image of sun and reduce daily sunspot number fluctuation as sunspot number can go up and down day to day basis. Strong solar cycle rise faster than average to maximum, decline faster than average to minimum and last shorter time than average. Weak solar cycle rise to maximum slower than average, decline to minimum slower than average and last longer than average. If we draw image of solar cycle strong solar cycle have sharp peak, weak solar cycle looks like a having less sharp peak. That is main thing about this.
When sun is active and solar cycle is strong world is warm and temperature is warm. When sun is not active and weak solar cycle world is cold and temperature is cold. I have read on internet world is better place to be when weather is warm and when weather is cold it is less good place to be. I have read on internet quite abit about solar cycle, but let's keep this simple so it might be easier to get it idea without too much details.
Now we can look at our current solar cycle 24. Solar cycle have so far reached highest SSN in april 2014, we had earlier peak in 2012 but this SSN is higher than then so solar cycle 24 maximum moved here. That makes 64 months rise from solar minimum to maximum. That is 5 years and 4 months , which is longer than average rose time to maximum. Actually average rose time is not exactly 4 years, it is 50,8 months which is 4 years and 2 months. Same way decline from maximum to minimum is 81,5 months which is not exatly 7 years, it is 6 years and 9 months. If you round those numbers, you get that 4 years rose time and 7 years decline time. I didn't count decimal, so that number is not exactly right but you might saw it from those numbers. If we assume solar cycle 24 maximum is april 2014, i think we need to wait little bit to get confirmation to this, rose time from solar cycle minimum to maximum is 1 year and 2 months longer than average. That is sign of weak solar cycle.
When did rose time to maximum last time lasted this long? Solar cycle 16 which peaked in1920's after 62 months, that is 2 months shorter than current solar cycle rose time, solar cycle 12 peaked in 1880's after 61 months, solar cycle 7 peaked in 1820's after 74 months, solar cycle 6 peaked in 1810's after 68 months. Last solar cycle 23 rose 49 months, so current solar cycle 24 rose 1 year and 3 months longer time. Last solar cycle declined 102 months, which was second longest decline.
Now let's take a look solar cycle length, which is rise time + decline time of solar cycle. Last solar cycle 151 months which is 12 years and 7 months, average is 132,3 months which is 11 years. So last solar cycle was longer than average. Now if we assume solar cycle 24 had maximum in april 2014 and is 1 year longer in decline than average which is 8 years, that would give minimum in april 2022. I think this might not be case. Jovian perihilion is in april 2022. That is when jupiter is nearest to the sun. I have read sun don't have minimum same time as jupiter is nearest to the sun. Minimum is 0,5 - 2 years before or after when Jupiter is closest to sun. 0,5 years before that time would be O.K, but it is more of sign of strong solar cycle which solar cycle 24 is not so i think after that would be better estimate. So let's assume 0,5 years after that time, that would be october 2022. That would make solar cycle 24 13 years and 10 months long, that would be long solar cycle. That would make solar cycle one of longest solar cycles. Rush to the poles has been in solar cycle 24 much weaker and slower than in previous cycles. The shape of emission suggest that solar cycle 24 will be quite extended. Line suggest solar cycle 24 might end 2026 which would make solar cycle 24 18 years long. That would be very long solar cycle.
Solar cycle 24 might be one of weakest solar cycles in 200 years. I am not surprised of this. I have found on internet that longer sun is in weak state, colder temperature are in world. It is that solar cycle length which can show temperature change in world. We might be heading toward similar to Dalton minimum which was in early 1800's. This means we are going to global cooling, or something like declining temperature. I am little cautious about word global temperature, because i don't know what global temperature is, i meant definition of that. I know it somehow shows world average temperature. Going to time when temperature decline. That is based what we know temperature about past and what sun has doing past. I have read quite a bit this, but i keep it simple here. I have found on internet that temperature decline in some amount, when solar cycle length increase 1 year. If you remember above, current solar cycle 24 is behaving differently than newer cycles, it is more of line early 1900's or 1800's. I should perhaps mention, that solar cycle 25 which come after solar cycle 24 might be one of weakeast one in 400 years. I have read that previous cycle length can show temperature during next cycle (I guess there is some time lag in temperature). I don't remember how much temperature decline i saw on internet for Providence, Rhode Island but i think something about 1 celsius decline for next solar cycle 24. That is for annual temperature i think. Dalton minimum was in early 1800's, which was cold time. In that time there was year called year without a summer which is year 1816.
My message seems to be quite long, i think it would be good to think is it possible to we are going to have global cooling? I think it is possible. We are going to have 200 year cycle in solar cycle 24 or coming solar cycles. That cycle occurs in 200 years time intervals, it was last time in Dalton minimum time about 200 years ago, so we are due for it. In 2 000 years there is 10 those cycles (2 000/ 200=10). During past 2 000 years once this cycle failed to occur during medieval warm period, so it occured 9 times that is then 90% accurate. That this cycle timing is more accuretely 200 years +-20 years which 180-220 years but 200 years is good to say. Sun might put us to global cooling. That means we might have global cooling coming and temperature might be begin decline.
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drew51 SE MI Z5b/6a
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