The models are showing what could be a true blast of winter a week from now. The NWS here in La Crosse mentioned today if the Euro wx model were to play out, the HIGH temp next Monday would be -12F and the low from -20F to -30F... We haven't seen that kind of cold in some time here. I've got peaches, nectarines, sweet cherries, apricots and Japanese plums that will all be tested next week (or could be). I think the trees will live, but the fruit may be damaged. I have a bunch of trees in the garage that should be fine (pluots/peaches/etc).

Just a heads up! Stay warm

Stop it !!!!

Don't you know that that science is settled. Extremes in cold temps are caused by warming. (big grin)

(Ok... don't anyone have a coronary, I know that it has been argued that atmospheric displacement caused by warming can lead to "pockets" or "isolated events" of extra cooling.)

Just a end of year kick off to the new year!!!!!!

Happy new year to all

Mike

There is a temp at which damage will occur to the flowers... My guess is that fully dormant, a hardy peach can probably take low -20Fs.... just a guess there. I'm also guessing apricots/sweet cherries may handle a little more cold, but who knows. I think the Japanese Plums can't take anything near that cold... hybrid plums can easily handle those temps, as can apples, pears, sour cherries...

We hit -17F at the airport yesterday.

I'll post some more maps as we get closer if it continues to show the extreme cold.

As Frank points out, flower buds aren't as hardy as wood. In other words, it takes a few degrees cooler to kill wood than it does to kill buds.

It happens here some. In 2012 we got down to -12F in some areas and it wiped out 90% of the peach crop of one farmer I know of. My locale only got to -8 and I didn't see any loss that year.

Hardiness seems to have a lot to do with the measure of dormancy. Sometimes peaches will laugh off temps that would normally ice them.

I hate it that some of your trees will be guinea pigs Frank, but please post back how they come through.

Spring frosts are generally our nemesis here.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std_f000_us.html

http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/2013-2014-monthly-southern-california-storm-season-forecast/

I do know that the link I posted has called for a "pineapple express" for So Cal but with warmer waters and air temps. As long as I see cool temps and rain, Ill be happy.

You don't say if those three warm air masses are warmer than usual. If they are not, then it just means that they just happened to come together the way they did which means that the cold weather is not a GW event. Heck it is just as likely to be a G Cooling event.

If so the cold weather is not GW caused. The point I am making is that regardless of our arrogance in thinking that we have it figured out, the truth is that we just don't have it figured out... on either side of the debate.

Einstein, replying to a comment about how smart he was, is reported to have said ... "if I knew 10% of what I don't know, then maybe I could be considered smart"

We are not all Einstein so if we knew just 1% of what we ___ think___ we know... then maybe....

Mike

Yes, they are warmer than usual.

Fruitnut,

I did a 15 day weather model run forecast, and the only chance of precipitation for Socal is around the 9th. And it’s only scatter showers.

I believe that week one and two will be drier, whereas week three and four will be wet.

Week one: Warm, dry and calm

Week two: Cool, some winds, and dry

Week three: cold with some rain.

Week four: Heavy rains.

*forecast Valid for Southern California only.

However if the extremes become more common on both ends (as predicted by those darned climate science charlatans) zones may have less and less meaning.

"WITH THE POLAR VORTEX ARRIVING SUN NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WITH
THIS AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE IN THE -30C RANGE BY 12Z MON...SOME 3
TO 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WHEN 850MB TEMPS OF
2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OFTEN PRODUCE RECORD
LOWS. IF MODELS ARE EVEN CLOSE...SUN NIGHT INTO TUE TO BE A VERY
COLD PERIOD. THIS ALSO WITH SOME GRADIENT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH EVEN MORE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS
APPEARING NEEDED TO START NEXT WEEK. USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS SAT THRU SUN...THEN TRENDED TOWARD COLDER
OF GUIDANCE FOR SUN NIGHT THRU TUE LOWS/HIGHS. THE LOWS OF AROUND
-20F IN THE GRIDS SUN/MON NIGHT MAY STILL BE SOME 5F TO 10F TOO
WARM IF THE STATISTICS OF EXTREME COLD OUTBREAKS HOLD."

Also hope WI or anywhere else with fruit trees doesn't hit -30F.

CRITICAL SPRING TEMPERATURES FOR FRUIT BUD DEVELOPMENT STAGES
http://orchardkeeper.com/pdf/IllustratedSpringFrostDamageThresholds.pdf

While I agree that forecasts can bomb, the consistency of the models, especially the Euro, is encouraging (if you like record breaking cold)... The NWS here in La Crosse says coldest air since 1996... I think lows will test the -26F I remember walking out in on Christmas back in 2000.

In any case, I'll get a good idea how apricots, plums, peaches and sweet cherries handle extreme cold

"ON SUNDAY EVENING...THE 01.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST TO OCCUR IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE EARLY FEBRUARY 1996. THIS AIR
MASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ON
MONDAY...925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM -30 TO -34C IN BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF. IN COMPARISON TO THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK EARLIER
THIS WEEK...925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM -18 TO -22C. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN -28 TO -32C. THIS IS 3.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. IN COMPARISON TO THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK
EARLIER THIS WEEK...850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM -16 TO 20C.
SINCE THE MOS GUIDANCE TRENDS ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES TOWARD
CLIMATOLOGY BEYOND DAY 5...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
FOR TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
THIS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM -10 TO -20C. LA CROSSE HAS ONLY SEEN 39 DAYS IN
WHICH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS -10F OR COLDER AND IT LAST OCCURRED
WAS FEBRUARY 2 1996 /-13C/. ROCHESTER HAS ONLY SEEN 59 DAYS IN
WHICH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS -10F OR COLDER AND IT LAST OCCURRED
ON FEBRUARY 3 1996.

IN ADDITION TO THE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES...THE WINDS
WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE /MAINLY DUE TO THE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHWEST/. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LONG
DURATION /LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY/ OF WIND CHILLS
IN THE -40 TO -50F RANGE. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD WIND CHILLS
THIS COLD WAS JANUARY 16 2009. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WIND
CHILL WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD."

Maybe the trees will survive but the fruit (if any) wont make it this year?

Either way, I hope it stays a little warmer than the forecast shows because that is some COLD WEATHER!

I don't know how many or how large your trees are, and I don't even know if my hunch is based in fact- but I wonder whether wrapping your trees with poly would do any good, perhaps in slowing dessication?

In the grocery store they use big rolls of thin film to quickly wrap entire pallets of product in two minutes or so. If I thought it would do any good I'd do that on my apple and pear in your situation. A sympathetic grocer might be able to sell you a roll pretty reasonably.

Just a thought- don't know if it would actually help.

Best of luck to you-

Mark

It sounds like you might be excited at the prospect of breaking some records, Frank. :) I can't imagine temperatures that low -- I don't recall ever experiencing anything below the teens. Our forecast suggests that we might drop into the high teens to around 20 on Monday night, so I took the time today to add a second layer of row cover to my garden beds and make sure that all of my potted fruits are adequately protected. If nothing else, this thread has reminded me that I'm perfectly content to live out the remainder of my life in the south...

Good luck, Franktank. I'm near Madison, but I don't have anything super tender. I suppose my chinese apricot, or pawpaws might flinch.

It's cyclical anyway, but gets more weird w/any climate change there may be added in.

Although my area is zone 7 and "always" has been (as long as such a thing has existed), my native Ohio has changed a lot:

The 1960s map had the northern half in zone 5, the southern half in z6, with zone 7 just barely touching the bottom tip around South Point, OH/Huntington, WV area.

The 1990 map took zone 5 a bit south, and zone 7 was no closer than about 150 - 200 miles south of the southernmost point.

The new map brings z7 closer again.

Tony

Also remember nobody even the GW scientists do not dispute we have been cooling since 1998. The GW people say long term we are warming, but short term the numbers cannot be ignored, we are cooling, and they agree. They say it's short term, but I think they have no idea, as they predicted the cooling would stop by now, and it hasn't.
All cosmic scientists that study the sun say we are cooling, but those people have been removed from counting by the GW people. See the other thread for the fake numbers and how they did it. All meteorologists were also removed from the numbers . Only climate change scientists remain, 75 of them to get the 98% number as 2 of them disagree. Yes the 98% consensus number is based on 77 people.

Sorry to bring this up, but others keep acting like GW is real, when we know it isn't. Well we know the data we have is no indication.
The glaciers are growing like crazy!! It's actually getting kinda scary! After the ice age we expect the glaciers to keep on melting, but they seem to be increasing which is not good, not good at all!

I'm sure my apple trees will be fine. And my cherry is rated for zone 4. My strawberries are under a nice blanket of snow.

I'm mostly worried about my Triple Crown blackberries.

Tonight with windchill (very windy), it'll be around - 15 to -18. It'll stay about that cold all day tomorrow (Fri). Then, Fri night, it'll go down to - 22 throughout the night!!.

We'll see how well my peaches (PF1, PF24 C and Autumn Star) will weather this storm.

I'm afraid there are significant factual problems with many of the claims in your post. In fact you seem to have almost a complete opposite understanding of the facts as we currently understand them (and use in a similar way to predict weather, etc).

The 2000s were the hottest decade on record, and recent summers have all set heat records across the globe. This is a short animation of the average global temperature over the 20th century, it always blows my mind to watch the clear transition to a different phase around 1950: http://www.nasa.gov/mpeg/159152main_tempanom_w_date_web.mpeg

Glaciers are in retreat across the globe, anyone can settle this with a quick google, so I will not say more except to note that I am an avid backcountry hiker and mountaineer and I've spent many weeks in glaciated regions and they are in decline everywhere I have been and it is obvious. Glacier National Park is likely to be ice cap free in less than 20 years.

Atmospheric CO2 levels also show a strong correlation to global temperatures. While the feedback in the carbon cycle that regulates atmospheric levels is complicated, the relationship is pretty undeniable in graphical form: https://www.google.com/search?q=co2+and+temperatures&safe=off&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&channel=fflb&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=KRfGUpiFDe2isATc84HIDA&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAQ&biw=1200&bih=1858

It's interesting to note that this crowing about the observed increase in average global temperature being a farce comes before a meso scale arctic event that follows another record-breaking summer! The entire western half of the country was on fire after record setting droughts. The Mississippi has been so low for years that there has been an ongoing effort to dynamite a deeper channel to ship the unfathomable amounts of grain that travel up that major natural artery - one that is routinely drying up in the summer!

So please, let's not talk as if there is some conspiracy to convince us of what we already have all felt as gardeners - spring is coming earlier - even as damaging frosts hit around the same periods they have historically.

The GFS weather model is predicting a powerful storm that could impact Texas on the 12th, 2014.

It might impact Southern California, first. However, at this point, its track is uncertain because it is a cut-off low. At this point, looks like it will take Southern track mostly affecting the San Diego area, then it will move towards Arizona, later it will strengthen right above the Texas Area. It will keep strengthening as it moves towards the Southeastern states. By the 13th�"the 14th, the storm could create blizzard conditions on the Eastern states.

A couple cold days is nothing but anectdotal observation. Almost entirely all of what he wrote shoes a vast lack of understanding for basic scientific principles and a vast lack of understanding for basic physics.

We're all worse off for having read his posts.

Now, can we please stop, and get back to the topic at hand.

I too was worried about the TC blackberries, I covered all the canes with at least 1 layer of burlap bags, tried to overlap so no holes. Raspberries are on their own. I covered 5 out of the 6 blueberries that we put in 2012 with buckets, the 6th was too large, hope not too much of a problem with record-breaking cold (due to break 1981 record of -9 tonight) and not much snow (about 7"?) to insulate. I hope my great-uncle's established patch and our wild BB survive.

In Ohio, I had them set a crop after -16F then a few years later, fail to even bloom after a rather benign -7F. There are a lot of factors involved - warm spells before the cold snap reduce hardiness, and it seems anecdotally at least that peaches are hardier towards early-winter cold snaps than later in winter.

Mrs. G,

In general wind chill doesn't affect bud survival. Wind chill affects warm blooded animals because it lowers our temperature faster.

Plants are always the same as the outside temp (unless the sun is shining on them) so wind doesn't matter. There are some cases were drying winds can desiccate plant tissues, but that's different than cold killing them.

Below is a link where some dormant bud hardiness testing was done on a few peach cultivars. According to Colorado State, bud kill started at around -5F.

As Hairmetal suggests, degree of dormancy has is a big factor in hardiness.

Also as the article suggests, varietal variation and cultural practices can also affect hardiness.

Fruitmaven,

I've grown TC blackberry for quite a few years. I get some winter kill at 0F.

As I mentioned earlier, the winter before last, it got down to -8 here and we still had a crop of TC. There have been years it didn't get quite as cold but still lost practically the whole crop of TC.

I understand Chester is quite a bit hardier. There is a U-pick blackberry patch about 10 miles from me. The owner planted all Chester because of the hardiness. I've tasted the berries and unfortunately they aren't near as sweet as TC.

http://www.hrt.msu.edu/faculty/langg/Fruit_Bud_Hardiness.html

Tony

I really hope we get the rain for So. CA Anything at all would be nice. Any possibility of rain has stayed in San Francisco or higher. Our last chance to get some, it rained over the ocean and never came over the land. I'm worried that we are going to see many old trees die if we have another dry year. My neighbor had bad sunburn on his fruit trees last year and many struggled in the heat and dry conditions. Beetles are killing off trees that are trying to hang on. A good rain would be a lifesaver for many trees around here.

I live in Orange County and it seems the rain always goes a little south or north or just fizzles once it reaches shore. But when it rains, IT REALLy rains. Just need a few goods months and things will start to shape up!

On topic, Im really starting to worry about all this cold air but mother nature can be tricky sometimes. It also doesnt help that there is so much water vapor and other crap in the atmosphere but who knows really how much of anything affects our weather. I would love to live 1000 years ago to see what it is like without any crap in the air (forget about the "mini ice age and other natural phenomena).

I still have to sometimes struggle with my inadequate well during dry periods, but I've never run out of essential water. CA seems to be struggling with drought nearly half the time, except along the northern coast.

Calling for 27 here Tuesday morning.......I know that is not cold for those in the north but for central Florida it is brutal. In a way I welcome it as the trees and bushes are moving too fast so this will slow them down. Heck I have quarter size peaches on one tree. It only partially bloomed though so no big deal.

I agree Mrs. G, that is bitter cold. Tree survival probably depends on how much snow cover they receive. Pretty much no fruit trees are going to survive -52 above the snow line. Even in places where the temps get down to -40, there will be widespread winter kill above snow. I've heard cases before where people can hear trees cracking when it gets that cold. Frozen moisture breaks them apart from the inside out.

It's only supposed to get to -9 here. However, if it gets any colder, it be enough to kill some young peach trees. I've read some isolated accounts where peaches have taken -30, but generally peaches are one of the least hardy temperate tree fruit. Young peaches are even less hardy.

Cityman,

The chart you posted is for non-dormant fruit bud development. For most people, exception being in really warm places like CA and FL, trees are dormant right now. Fruit buds can take much colder temps when dormant.

I'll be sure to let you know how my peaches fair...i have a row of younger trees out there in the ground...a lot of them have chip buds placed on them...yikes! not sure what is going to happen.

-3F here all day...tonite will be interesting.

What positive (I hope there is one) will this brutal cold have on the pests we battle each year.

Insect
Bacterial
Fungal
Mammal
Avian

Mike

On the plus side, I do hope this helps with some of the pests and critters that have been moving in the last few years. Saw several fire ant mounds for the first time this year. Armadillos are here now, too. I hope they freeze solid!

Here it still hasn't gotten down to what used to be a normal lowest but it's gotten well into the negative single digits. Tomorrow is predicted to be the coldest night yet and then things go back to the new "normal" for a while.