Hi Ingrid!

Your comments showed up in "most recent posts" and here I am.

Having a garden may seem like a luxury in the present circumstances, but I believe gardens will be a haven for wildlife in an otherwise bleak and waterless environment here.

I'm as distressed as you are about the prospect of a weak El Nino. I did find one prediction that qualified "weak" as extending into the lower range of "moderate" El Nino.

It's been years since the garden has been this dry (I'm following the orders for reduced watering on given days) , and the extended spells of hot weather did it no favors. The shaded rear garden is doing better than the scorched front -- unusual this close to the ocean -- but I wonder how much longer that can continue.

Looking at the reduced condition of my butterfly, bee, and hummingbird plants, I console myself that this will be an El Nino winter. Now I'm not able to fool myself so easily.

Nancy, I well remember you from a very different forum where you stood out in oh so many ways and earned my lasting respect. How lovely to hear from you here.

I could be mistaken in the long run, but I've restructured my garden with the idea that roses and other plants can still do well in areas where there is afternoon shade. Time will tell if I'm correct but, more than ever, I try to live in the here and now. Let's hope the pundits are mistaken, as they so often are, and El Nino will surprise us with its intensity.

Ingrid

El Nino is a situation which brings much more than "normal" rainfall to CA. So, if there is a weak El Nino, that just means that we will get a bit more rain than "normal". At this point, I would happily settle for "normal" rainfall, so I do not think this prediction is a harbinger of doom.

Also, I do not put much faith in ANY long term weather forecasts - they are wrong more times than they are right. My plan is to wait and see what happens - "don't borrow trouble", is the old saying. At the moment, the temperature here has dropped 30 degrees from what it has been for the last 6 days, and it is starting to sprinkle. I will take that happily!

Jackie

Long range forecasts can change. Things have been better than I expected here in the north. Mid September we received 1 1/2 inches. Now several storm systems are coming in starting tonight. If our pond fills up this winter I know I can mostly keep things alive for another summer.

Jackie and Pam, I'm glad that you've had several rains since last winter which would certainly help your gardens tremendously. We've had none, which makes the drought situation here more dire.

The El Nino prediction is no longer a long-range forecast since the rain season was projected to begin in October or November. It was certainly long-range in June and July when a stellar El Nino was predicted. I really wish they'd stop doing that since it raises hopes and then can shatter them when more realistic data are available. As last winter we had only about 4.5 inches of rainfall here, well below what the average used to be, a mild El Nino will do almost nothing to lessen the drought, although I'll happily take any drop of rain I can get.

Ingrid

I have a friend who studies ocean current temperatures.

She told me some while ago that the El Nino was hanging in enough to probably give Oregon pretty decent rainfall -- but she didn't hold out a lot of hope for us in SoCal.

Jeri

I think the typical strong El Nino pattern works to shift the jet stream to the south, so that CA gets the heavy winter rains that are normal for us up here in the PNW. What's good for you in CA is not so good for us but I don't think you'll find a single PNW'er that would complain about a drier, milder winter. We just tend to forget the side effects of that are a reduced snowpack in the mountains, ergo the ski season sucks and the reservoirs don't fill adequately and our normally very dry summers are complicated by water restrictions. (Yes, we have drought and water restrictions as well, but thankfully no where close to your crippling state!)

I do feel badly for you. My sister lived in SoCal for years and she and I both have friends and family in the area. And it's getting a little dire. Not only for you gardeners but for the CA agriculture industry, which carries global repercussions. Ultimately your drought affects us all.

Although it is too far north to be of help to you, there is a secondary factor that should offset the weak El Nino conditions slated for the PNW. And that is what is being described as a massive "blob" of warm water stretching across the north Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska to Japan. From 3-5 degrees higher than normal, this blob has resulted in a significantly warmer summer than typical here and a projected warmer and drier winter as well, much like a normal El Nino. Unfortunately, this has no impact on the climate much below mid Oregon. And a markedly negative effect on cold water species like salmon and other fish and wildlife. And this blob doesn't appear to be disippating any time soon.

I don't think anyone who reads the news can argue against the reality of climate change. Really.

One place to start is for Americans, as a culture, to stop being so WASTEFUL! I am amazed at how utterly mindless so many Americans are about energy use. Lights left on round the clock; thermostats set to 70 round the clock; I rent my house and just can't believe the waste by tenants, leaving windows open with the AC running, drying clothes in the clothes dryer nonstop, including when there is a perfectly good clothesline and beautiful sunshine outside to do the drying for you while you're off having fun..

The list is endless.

We are an enormously spoiled and wasteful culture, where infantile comfort outweighs all else. We're going to do ourselves in if we don't change that.

Just a historic aside - when I looked up the current forecast for this winter, I came across an new article which was written as a study of the 1918 El Nino. They said that because of WWI, less climate records were kept from 1914-1918 than before that, but they did have some temp and other records from 1918. They compared them to the good records they have from many other El Ninos, and extrapolated, and figured out that the 1918 El Nino was the strongest one they have historic records of, period. It caused a HUGE drought and famine in India, which they think materially increased the effects of the worldwide flu pandemic that killed 50 million people. The more things change, the more they stay the same -

Jackie

It was certainly long-range in June and July when a stellar El Nino was predicted.

We were worried about the mud and rock slides that accompany a strong El Nino. I guess that's the benefit of a milder condition.

I've restructured my garden

That's on my do-to list. I've learned that mondo grass can be as thirsty as a lawn. It was the perfect solution when the area was in shade, and even thrived when the shading tree was removed. However, more intense sun such as we had this summer (darn those monsoon conditions -- all the humidity and scorching light with little to no rain) and less water results in dry thatching instead of green ground cover. (The dry blades make a lasting mulch unlike lawn trimmings.)

So I have my research to do on low-water plants that attract hummingbirds and butterflies in my micro climate. Something other than another salvia.

To keep my comments somewhat on topic, my one and only antique rose, Gruss an Aachen, has done better in this summer's warmer weather.

Just to point out one small silver lining, I've read that the drought is actually helping some native species take back territory from invasive species. Outside of areas with irrigation and other water from humans the native ants are starting to put up a good fight against the Argentine invaders, something I am heartily rooting for. We probably won't see any difference, but just knowing that out in the wild areas the native species are holding their own makes me feel a bit better.

I don't know that all of the native species are benefitting. Here in Ventura County, we are actually beginning to lose old, mature oak trees. Even THEY couldn't stand up to a complete lack of water.

Jeri

Ingrid - just curious - you got way below what the average used to be of water last year - what did it used to be?

Your garden is so lovely, it amazes me that you have been able to create it in such a dry area.

Jackie

Jackie, the average in our local hilly area is (or I should say was) around 15 inches which is why I think I had a fairly good display of roses in spite of the poor soil and solar radiation. Since we've been in a drought situation the spring flush has noticeably diminished and I've had to be pretty selective about photographing the roses. Since we had the weeds taken out and the trees limbed up it's been pretty dire here and I've had nothing to show for some time. However, in spite of no bloom and dried-up leaves, there is new growth coming and if it will condescend to rain I may be able to dust off my camera again one of these days.

Ingrid

Thanks so much - our "normal" rain year here is 35-40 inches, so even when the weather is behaving we get a lot more rain than you do. Last year we got 20 inches, which everyone thought was tragic - it is good to understand a different perspective!

My house is 3-4 blocks from the downtown of our town. It is also one block OUTSIDE of the hilly area where they are insisting that people limb up their trees, remove all juniper & bamboo, etc. We keep our huge trees pruned to keep them off our house and the neighbors' roofs (my DH's ancestors cleverly planted the very large trees right at the side and back of our 1/3 acre lot, so they loom over 3 of our neighbor's garage roofs and yards). However, other than that we let them grow, and also all of the smaller trees and large bushes. So, lots of shade which this summer has been great. Not something which I appreciated as much before this.

Here's hoping that all of you folks in So Cal get more rain soon - if we have a "normal" winter I think you will.

Jackie

And, just to expand the perspective . . . My area is really "coastal desert." Our natural flora is pretty much prickly pear cactus, and in a few areas, things like ceanothus (which has not bloomed the past couple of years).

Though we are far, far cooler than Ingrid's inland desert, OUR "normal" annual rainfall is approx. 15.22 inches.

That being so, plants you don't want to just die must be irrigated. Our groundwater flows through ancient seabed, and is alkaline and mineral-laden -- and that is why rain is so welcome here. It helps to leach out built-up minerals.

The current drought represents the scantiest rainfall we have had since I've lived here. And it does not comfort me to read that we are now experiencing worse drought conditions than the drought of the late 19th-Century, which destroyed the cattle-based economy of the Rancho Period.

:-(

Jeri

I get different news stations being further up the coast but they are reporting that the sea temps are near the same as the biggest El Niño seasons 66 vs 66.44 and the update puts SoCal in wetter than average. But more importantly it puts most of the water sending areas in SoCal in normal rainfall when heavier would be good.

Remember our drought effects not only our gardens but the food much of the nation eats

Yeah, Kippy -- CA grows 80% of the nation's produce. When fields here must be fallowed for lack of water -- the effects are going to be felt in grocery stores across the country.

It's just so depressing.

I hope and pray for all of you to have a very wet rainy season!

In my neck of the woods El Nino means lots of snow! That's fine with me because it's the best insulation there is for the roses. I just hope it doesn't come with any more Polar Vortexes!

I just realized that the annual stated rainfall for our area of 15 inches is quite off the mark in the time I've lived here. At the most its been 10 inches, and much more usual has been 7-8 inches. Still, this is a minor consideration compared to the ramifications of drought in the agricultural areas. To top it all off, the main agricultural valley in central California has in places sunk down 30 feet due to the aquifers below it having been depleted. In wonder how much of that was due to the "spring water" companies taking millions of gallons to put on store shelves. Insanity for that to be allowed in times like this. How many sink holes will it take to make politicians care about changing the laws?

Ingrid

Ingrid, have you ever driven through Owens Valley knowing it used to be a busy stop for migrating birds. And seeing the dust bowl the lake is now and then noticing the Crystal Geyser plant. They are not start of the problem, LA's friend Mulholland did that but I still can't see drinking their water

"There it is. Take it." W. Mulholland

The last time I saw Owen's Lake it still had some water in it. I don't think I care to see it now. What's been done to this planet is heart-breaking, no matter where you look. It's always the innocent who suffer the most.

Ingrid

Nancy in Venice, that might help explain why Gruss in Aachen is not doing anything for me in cold, damp zone 5.

accuweather.com is out with their winter forecast this weekend. They are anticipating continued dryness for the PNW and Northern CA, but some rain for the Southwest, including So. CA. Also cold and snow in the interior midAtlantic states, where I am. Good for roses, bad for driving. I might park the car for the duration.

Tibbrix, I was raised by pennysqueezing, use it up, make it do, do without parents. The nickels howled in agony as did us kids "deprived" of the enticing consumer products displayed by our classmates. A mythical entity named "dollars" resided at The Bank, and were never seen at our house. You can learn the easy way, by figuring things out, or the hard way, and it looks like most Americans are set to learn the hard way.

I have been thinking, in light of recent events, that maybe it might be wise for Californians to be planting some Neem and Karandja trees, now while the seeds are still available. There is a guaranteed market for the whole array of products of both species.

Let's hope roses will prove to be more resilient to this prolonged drought than aspen trees are. According to the Smithsonian and Stamford University, after a drought in the West several years ago, aspen strees started dying in large numbers. The drought ended but "sudden aspen decline" continued and now affects approximately 20 per cent of Western aspen forests. A Stamford-led study in 51 Colorado sites found that aspens' ability to transport water has been radically (& probably permantently) impaired, particularly in their root systems. Researchers have concluded that ongoing thirst continues to cause die-offs in western aspen forests -- even well after increased moisture became available.

Dig a canal and get water from close by states.

I think managing our resources more wisely would be a large step in the right direction. There are plenty of crops that can be dry farmed out here, but I think it's even more important to start using irrigation water more wisely. It seems like many people think of it as an 'all or nothing ' sort of game, when the truth is that many crops are over-watered and giving them just enough water would keep the plants alive and actually produce a higher quality product. Particularly tree fruits, a local apple orchard had to stop irrigating because of financial concerns and the result was unhappy looking trees and the highest quality fruit they had ever produced. Most things are never truly black and white, it's all shades of grey.

This post was edited by peachymomo on Mon, Oct 20, 14 at 11:09

In my opinion it is sensible to prepare for the worst but don't assume it will come.

Last year I took out the 25% worst performing roses of my garden. We put in drip irrigation (which I do not much like) in the back 2/3 of the property, reserving spray for the front. We use mulch, which yes, I need to renew this spring. I took out a high water bed and replaced it with a planting of succulents. We reduced the size of the vegetable planting -- the ground squirrels were getting most of it, anyway.

Our water use has gone down measurably. If it has to go down further, I will consolidate and hand water.

Periodic droughts are normal for California. Back in the 1700's there was one that lasted for several decades. Droughts that last 5-10 years are common. What makes it worse it that there are more people living here now to share the scarce water. But I think we can get through this, perhaps with some scrapes and scratches, but essentially intact.

I think that planning your garden to get afternoon shade is an excellent idea, and should help a great deal.

Rosefolly

There is some evidence that a thick layer of mulch will absorb nighttime moisture out of the air and then it condenses and drips down to the roots so keep that mulch layer heavy over the soil at all times. I'm not counting on a rainy winter this year.

Kitty, that sounds very encouraging. I'll be raking up more leaves when it gets cooler in the evening (hot again, alas) to put around the plants. I wonder if that's one of the reasons the roses have put out new growth even though they're still carrying lots of desiccated older leaves where I haven't removed them.

Ingrid

accuweather.com projections for this coming winter suggest there may be some relief for gardeners in So. CA.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-day-school-forecast-winte/36089509

Notice on their map, the stretch of green "wet" beginning at SF Bay and stretching along the CA coast and inland along the southern border.

nastarana, I hope the predictions come to pass, but at this point I'll believe in rain when I see it dropping from the sky in my backyard. Weather-predicting seems to be a risky business, and in our area especially they've been wrong quite a few times when hurricanes from Baja veered sharply to the east just before reaching us. So frustrating!

Ingrid