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Does this mean its going to rain?
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Posted by
whaas 5a SE WI (
My Page) on
Sat, Aug 4, 12 at 15:18
| I've seen this before when a 100% chance of rain was posted and then it didn't rain. I just don't get.
100% to me means there is 0% chance that it will not rain.
Crossing my fingers as I "may" not have to water this weekend!
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Follow-Up Postings:
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| I haven't been overly optimistic lately - Even if it does rain, it probably will only be a light shower that doesn't even make it under the trees. There is a 50% chance of rain here tonight, with "1 quarter to 1 half inch possible" - I've heard all that before! |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| Well, you could either wash your car or schedule a picnic - either of those should push it over to 200% chance of rain. |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| The Doppler map shows "green" over about 2/3's of Wisconsin for today. We got a fair amount of rain over night and a little more this AM. Our weather tends to head east. Good luck! |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| the hourly is all i look at.. and if it doesnt say.. 100%.. good luck with that .. then i go to the interactive map.. and hit NEXT 6 HOURS ... green on that map doesnt mean anything.. i get excited when it yellow... but not so much red ... i also zoom out.. to see the whole state.. so i can see the trends ... if it might actually pass overhead ... ken |
and i meant
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| ... that this year.. in my garden.. green on the map means nothing to me ... ken |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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- Posted by whaas 5a SE WI (My Page) on
Sat, Aug 4, 12 at 20:38
| green on that map doesnt mean anything.. i get excited when it yellow Exactly! So here is how it shook out... 4pm = 100%
5pm = 0%
6pm = 0%
7pm = ITS F'ING SUNNY! I got a grand total of wait for it...not even measurable. Maybe 1/32nd. Apparently Milwaukee and further south in IL got some good rain. Like I said I just don't get how they come up with those %'s. |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| 1/32nd is actually 0.03", so that is actually measurable. Precipitation is measured in hundredths of an inch. You should get a precipitation gauge if you don't have one already... see the one on the top right: |
Here is a link that might be useful: rain gauge on top right
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| Didn't get wet under the trees here this time. Lakeside counties-Door, Kewaunee, and Manitowoc got a good soaking. Drove back from my land near Suring this aft. Had to stop in GB and I can tell you, that whole area above GB is green green green. May not have picked up much rain today, but the evidence is that they've been well supplied all summer. +oM |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| Hallelujah! We got 1 1/2 inches here in Central Indiana this morning! Pretty strong storm! |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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- Posted by whaas 5a SE WI (My Page) on
Sun, Aug 5, 12 at 8:43
| About time, you guys really needed it. |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| i want to thank you for this post.. the red zone hit us at about 830pm ... nothing bad .. just .5 inches of rain.. NOT followed by sun sucking it all up ... didnt even get wet under the mulch ... followed by drizzle all night long.. to the tune of total 1 inch by 9am ... looks like its going to be what i would usually call a suicide day .. dark grey .. making the house seem like a tomb.. but since it will be rainy.. i will get out an umbrella.. and go walk around the yard ... ken |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| Whaas- Just outside La Crosse and ended up with almost 1.5 inches... Its really greening back up around here. |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| Hey, I'm livin' large now. Eight one hundredths of an inch. Woo hoo! |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| Still watering here. :( It was cloudy and looked like rain this morning. I allowed myself to be hopeful. Silly me. Sun shining now. Alas. |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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Only the Rain Crow knows for sure if it will rain. Sometimes called the yellow-billed Cuckoo they will kuk-kuk-kuk-kluk-kuk rapidly day or night. The sound travels and you learn to recognize it. After this sound is heard it will rain. You may never see a Rain Crow but you sure do hear them.
ps - they hang out where there is alot of caterpillars. |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| This animated U.S. water vapor map will give you a pretty good idea of what's on the way in your area. It was a better predictor than the weather forecasters last year during our horrible drought. |
Here is a link that might be useful: Water Vapor Map
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| The terrain of this area of the state makes a statement with what the locals call the 'magic lines'. I kid you not, it's not at all unusual to travel to town where the storm drains can't carry the outpour away, and go three miles into the country and literally see a line of demarcation across the road. One side wet and one side dry. It's also pretty typical when rain is coming or has come for the phones to start ringing amoungst friends to see who got rain and how much. And we'll all be in the same area of the county, a township apart on either side. It gets even more noticeable in winter, between us and a county away. They are glaciated and flat, we are not and hilly. One side could be having a pleasant winter's day and the other with roads impassable and trees breaking from snow load. Almost bizarre. I've always been a weather nerd, and can call it closer than most of the meteorologists from interactive maps. I can also smell rain in the distance. Must've been a horse in a previous life. |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| So that's what we were eh, Calliope-horses? I'm a geek too when it comes to weather, and can read the sky pretty well. I'm 56 now but I tell you true, roughly 50 years ago, I clearly recall standing at the back door of our garage, watching rain pour down, then going to the front garage door and seeing no rain falling. Hey, it's got to end somewhere! +oM |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| Lately, weather people have been issuing flood watches and warnings and hyping these' 'derechos' as though it were the end of time. Is 'squall line' now out of vogue for some reason? Then there are a few spits of rain that soon evaporate and dead calm went to gentle breeze. Last few days have been sooo humid you would think it would pour like crazy--not this year! Yesterday was 95 f with a dew point near. 80 f and mostly overcast but it's like squeezing blood out of a stone to get a little rain. Gotta go water now, and this area isn't even officially in drought! |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| Is 'squall line' now out of vogue for some reason? Yes, and you called it right. Makes me sound like some old fogey, but I can't believe what they call a winter storm anymore, and issue alert and alert over. I have walked to school in snows worse than that. I suppose the fact that so much is vehicle dependent now, and many communities don't even have sidee-walks and kids are bussed when they literally could walk across the road to class and nobody uses the catch-phrase for real estate of "being close to work". When the world runs on wheels, it's all about driving conditions. My family in England gets upset if it gets cold enough for ice to form on the car glass. They use a little aerosol spray tin to remove it. My God, my cars in the midwest have been so encased in ice, they look like sculptures for a Detroit wedding. It's all in the perspective. |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| I've seen many a time that the aggregate hot air of so many weather and news dopes hyping up some approaching storm.....makes the storm evaporate and go away! +oM |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| Speaking as a meteorologist, thunderstorms and rain from them are about the hardest things to forecast. They are often so localized that we have no chance of being right. Even when we issue severe weather warnings, the likelyhood of any point in the warning actually being impacted is usually small because of how localized storms are, and the fact that we are expected to warn for everything. More people, often significantly more people, are usually warned compared to those that we know will actually be affected. |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| Forgive us for poking a little at meteorologists, famartin. It's a term too loosely used and shouldn't be confused with the local television station's 'weather girl'. I've sat for hours on weather related sites just reading. It's fascinating stuff. Yes, you're danged if you do and danged if you don't, as far as releasing alert data. My concern is that like our local emergency siren, people get so used to hearing it go off they stop paying attention to it. Speaking of one of the former local weather girls, I turned on the set just for the entertainment. The poor thing couldn't pronounce precipitation. She just kept trying to wrap her mouth around it and never did get it right and gave up. I just wanted to say for cripes sake lady, just say rain. She didn't last long. The next one, however, came on during the worst drought I can ever remember in the area. I work in agriculture, and to us it was a devastating experience. She was giving the Friday forecast for the weekend and said "Good News folks! No rain in sight!" |
RE: Does this mean its going to rain?
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| Heh, Fam, though not a real meteorologist myself, I'm usually the one to stick up for you guys. I agree-what could be more chaotic a system to try to make predictions about than moving air masses. And summer precip in particular has always been obviously most random. It's mostly winter storms around here that elicit so much ridiculous blather, and not at all just from the weather people. +oM |
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