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| Will we have a warmer, dryer winter, or a frigid, snowy winter?
As it relates to trees, I've got some zone 5 trees in my yard, and I'm zone 5b/6a, so, from a selfish standpoint, I'm scared those trees planted 6 months ago are going to be exposed to temps below their zone. I wonder how likely that is to happen... |
Here is a link that might be useful: LA Times
Follow-Up Postings:
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| Actually, there is evidence the result can be a very negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AO (Arctic Oscillation) as happened 2 and 3 years ago, resulting in cold air spilling south. Basically because the pole is not as cold, therefore the contrast to the tropics isn't as great, the belt of high speed winds that surround it aren't as fast. These slower winds aren't as able to keep the cold air "contained" to the north of the belt of high speed wind. The result is whatever cold air there is spills south into North America and Europe. Saw it described as kinda like leaving the refrigerator door open. Locally colder where the cold air spills out, but the frig as a whole warms up. Overlay on it all, that a weak to perhaps moderate El Nino is all but certain. Resulting in "who knows". We are in uncharted territory. The above reasons are why I will continue with the old USDA climate zones for now when choosing long term plants. As extremely cold winters combined with others being extremely warm seems the most likely result. Gee, kinda, exactly what we have seen the last 5 years in the same time frame the ice has melted so much. Forget normal, think it as "traditional" weather. Arktrees |
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- Posted by ken_adrian z5 (My Page) on Thu, Sep 13, 12 at 12:11
| ho hum.. another alarmist propaganda piece from la la land ... see link, wherein it states, among other things: The answer can be seen through natural causes. A look at the ocean temperatures globally over the past 15 years, or since the global temperatures reached a peak in the major el Nino of 1997-1998 supplies the answer..... you said: As it relates to trees .... I'm scared come on.. how long have you gardened ... plants live or die ... yours are zone appropriate ... mother nature is a wench ... if you truly believe.. you can beat her.. in toto ... you are somewhat delusional ... if you plant 100 trees [which you may have] .. do you really think you will bat 100??? dont be scared.. dont worry.. you have done wonderfully.. odds are.. you will lose a few ... but crimminey .. DONT WORRY OR BE SCARED ... relax woman!!!! ken |
Here is a link that might be useful: link
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| Not going to argue with you Ken, as it won't do any good anyway. But do you even know what NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AO (Arctic Oscillation) are? And too be blunt, you melt half the ice, it will force changes in global weather. End of story. Just like you change the temp of the equatorial Pacific 1-3 degrees (El Nino, La Nina), it forces global changes in the world weather. Lastly, I said nothing about Global Warming. I strictly addressed lose of sea ice and it's effects on weather patterns. Believe what you will, I don't care. But why do you suppose half the ice has melted since your supposed peak? Simple, that is cherry picked data in your so called truth. Just the same, I was addressing the ice and ilovemytrees question. Your the one that took it political. Arktrees |
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| Restricting the discussion to winter... We are supposed to see more winter precip (much of which falls as rain anyway), but recent winters have brought both record snow and precip deficits. So, as with summer, precip. very unpredictable at this point with Increased winter tree damage issues from... Freak autumn snowstorm Other than more extreme, I don't see a reliable pattern here in terms of precip--yet. I would personally avoid planting trees w.o. some degree of drought/heat tolerance. |
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- Posted by wisconsitom 4/5 WI (My Page) on Thu, Sep 13, 12 at 19:04
| Not to mention, who exactly is "we" in this question? Residents of upstate NY, since that's where ILOVE lives? Fair enough, but to suppose-nobody here is-that effects would be uniform across all locations on the globe is hugely foolish. But again, one thing I'm NOT saying is that anyone here thinks in so simple a manner. And thanks Ark, for bringing some actual data and info into your response. I'm big on that stuff! +oM |
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| In the NJ area, the last decade or so has been, overall, extremely wet. If there's any "trend", that might be it, but I wouldn't go so far as to say there was one. Some decades are wet, others aren't. The 60's were remarkably dry. |
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| The elephant in the room is about to sit on us. But oh God, let's not mention it! |
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| This elephant? ArCtic. |
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- Posted by ilovemytrees 6a Western NY (My Page) on Fri, Sep 14, 12 at 13:29
| I was just wondering what winter weather would be like in the contiguous United States this year. I was wondering how it would affect ALL of us, not just me. I do wonder for areas who normally see snow, if we will see a lot more snow this year... |
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- Posted by strobiculate none (My Page) on Fri, Sep 14, 12 at 15:03
| Tell ya whst...if you can accurately predict any given year of weather...lets talk stock picks. After the year thar saw katrina, the "experts" predicted a record number of hurricanes gor the next year, and a record number of high intensity storms as well. They were wrong on both counts. After the winter of two years ago, the predictions were for another winter of very heavy snow and lots of cold. This year, I am hearing it's supposed to be a winter without snow or cold. Methinks it's a bunch of mularkey, people mindlessly parroting without thinking about things. The truth is, we don't know. The only constant our world has is change, yet when it happens, we throw our hands in the air and run around like chicken little. In another age, we'd offer prayer and sacrifice, but since we have replaced religion and faith with politics and reality tv, we just prate. it's not religion that is the opiate of the masses, it's a neverending buffet of american idol wannabees and kardashian clones. Talk about a special hell, reserved for those who speak at the theater. |
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- Posted by lou_midlothian_tx z8 DFW, Tx (My Page) on Fri, Sep 14, 12 at 17:30
| Assuming El Nino continue to stay through spring, southern states tend to get average to above average rainfall. Not sure about New York. I just focus on Texas for long term forecast. I am concerned about PDO going negative which would last maybe 20 years bringing more frequent and longer lasting La Nina which usually means more drought to Texas. Another interesting thing is solar cycle where we are not seeing as many sunspots as we're used to for a long time, I believe weakest in 100 years and next cycle could be even weaker. It may lower global temperature. During La Nina years, global temperature tend to drop a bit. It'd be interesting to see what happens when you get both very weak solar activity and strong La Nina at the same time along with cold AMO as well. I've looked into historical weather reports over Arctic Ice over the past 100 years and it appears to be largely cyclical so no big deal. I bet during 2020s, we'd see above average amount of ice up there... http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/ In case you didn't know, a large powerful storm in the arctic ocean broke up ice and pushed them out. Not only that, it churned up warm water with cold water. I don't recall the exact date but I think it was a month ago? Antarctica is having above average ice extent this year. |
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